All tagged covid

Here's how the California Hospital Association counts extra beds

Here's how the California Hospital Association counts extra beds

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

In early December, we stumbled on internal data maintained by the California Hospital Association. It appears our access was granted due to an oversight, because when we requested more information, we were told that the information we accessed was not available to the general public. We have re-entered the data into the chart below.

It’s important to note that many of these beds are licensed, but not staffed. We called some of the more overwhelmed hospitals, namely Keck Hospital at USC. The supervisor on duty was surprised to hear that they had 210 “surge” beds listed. Most likely this is because they are not yet staffed.

See “The L.A. County bed shortage seems more like a budget problem.”

Is Los Angeles' new Covid lockdown justified?

Is Los Angeles' new Covid lockdown justified?

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

California and Los Angeles have both issued new Covid restrictions with the news that Covid hospitalizations nationwide have exceeded 100,000 and the Golden State’s Covid hospitalizations appear to be approaching 10,000.

We would like to look at different areas the entire state, but since Los Angeles has the highest concentration of cases, deaths and hospitalizations, we thought we would zoom in on the L.A. data first. Before we do, let’s interpret the state’s overall numbers.

Even as cases have zoomed past 1 million to reach 1.2 million in just a few weeks, because the state has conducted 24 million PCR tests, the positivity rate in California is just 5.1 percent. The World Health Organization stated in May that the positivity rate should remain below 5 percent for 14 days to be safe for an area to reopen.

Is Covid surging in the state of Montana?

Is Covid surging in the state of Montana?

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

Of all the positive cases in Montana, the mortality rate is hovering around 1 percent — not of the total population but of all positive cases in the state.

Like other governors around the country, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock announced restrictions this week, putting in place a statewide mask mandate starting Friday.

The Associated Press reported that the restrictions came as the “virus surges” in Montana. Does the data really show a surge? It’s hard to say definitively, since nationwide, cases and deaths are counted even when there is no laboratory-confirmed Covid test. As long as a doctor puts "Covid” as a cause on the death certificate, even if the determination is based on symptoms alone, that death is counted as a Covid-19 death.

So back to Montana: the word “surge” can be misleading since it’s really fatalities and hospitalizations that matter. Yes, positive cases have surged, by 40 percent since October 30. The first two weeks in November saw the 40 percent growth rate in cases, from 32,801 cases to 46,061, an increase of more than 13,000 cases. But that’s not the full picture; the number of Covid-related hospitalizations and deaths are important, too. In fact, they’re more important because they have to do with the ultimate outcome. Of all the positive cases in each time period in Montana, the fact remains that the mortality rate is hovering around 1 percent — not of the total population but of all positive cases in the state.

The charts show that there have been zero deaths for Montanans age 0 to 29; and for the other age groups, death rates are very low — until the 70+ age range. And for the latest numbers reported, the median age of Covid-related deaths is 78. The average life expectancy of a male in the U.S. as of 2017 was 78.1.

California Covid-19 death rate continues to decline

Tatiana Prophet
Covid-19

By STAFF REPORTS

The second half of July began with a Covid-19 positivity rate in California of 7.5 percent, still below the desirable 8 percent the state was aiming for. It remains to be seen whether the positivity rate will stay below 8 percent going forward.

Deaths continued to remain steady, hovering around 100-150 per day, with the death rate (deaths versus positive cases) declining to as little as 0.2 percent on July 18 and then going back up to 0.5 percent the next day.

Following are a few snapshots of the current situation in California and elsewhere.