Only 96,000 voters requested ballots in Philly, so why did Joe Biden get 339,403 mailed votes?

Only 96,000 voters requested ballots in Philly, so why did Joe Biden get 339,403 mailed votes?

Tatiana Prophet
2020 Election

Even with the new rules, voters still must request a ballot to mail in votes in Philadelphia County
So why did Joe Biden get 339,403 mailed votes in Philadelphia County when only 96,000 voters requested mail ballots in Philadelphia County?

Further, the mail-ballot rejection rate in 2016 was magnitudes higher than in 2020, in spite of showing far fewer total ballots mailed. In 2016, 461 ballots were rejected out of 13,000-plus, an error rate of 3.46 percent. But in 2020, 232 mail ballots were rejected out of a total of 371,798, the state reported. That’s an error rate of 0.1 percent. If the same error rate from 2016 had been applid to Philadelphia in the 2020 election, 12,864 votes would have been rejected as in error. In fact, several major media outlets warned before the election that if 2016’s error rate were applied, it would result in a lot of disenfranchisement. In the end, that error rate simply was not repeated.

Pennsylvania vote: Nearly 300K mailed ballots for Biden had to come from non-Democrats

Pennsylvania vote: Nearly 300K mailed ballots for Biden had to come from non-Democrats

Tatiana Prophet
2020 Election

Elected officials and citizen pundits alike appear to believe that President Donald Trump incited a riot at the Capitol because he has been claiming election fraud since Nov. 3. So we decided to do an independent analysis of each state’s statistical anomalies to try to determine whether there was probable cause to examine forensic evidence in search of what may have caused such unlikely numbers, in such a narrow and contested race.

In Pennsylvania, 293,207 more mailed ballots were counted for Biden than registered Democrats returned ballots: 1,996,000 versus 1,702,000.

Here's how the California Hospital Association counts extra beds

Here's how the California Hospital Association counts extra beds

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

In early December, we stumbled on internal data maintained by the California Hospital Association. It appears our access was granted due to an oversight, because when we requested more information, we were told that the information we accessed was not available to the general public. We have re-entered the data into the chart below.

It’s important to note that many of these beds are licensed, but not staffed. We called some of the more overwhelmed hospitals, namely Keck Hospital at USC. The supervisor on duty was surprised to hear that they had 210 “surge” beds listed. Most likely this is because they are not yet staffed.

See “The L.A. County bed shortage seems more like a budget problem.”

Is Los Angeles' new Covid lockdown justified?

Is Los Angeles' new Covid lockdown justified?

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

California and Los Angeles have both issued new Covid restrictions with the news that Covid hospitalizations nationwide have exceeded 100,000 and the Golden State’s Covid hospitalizations appear to be approaching 10,000.

We would like to look at different areas the entire state, but since Los Angeles has the highest concentration of cases, deaths and hospitalizations, we thought we would zoom in on the L.A. data first. Before we do, let’s interpret the state’s overall numbers.

Even as cases have zoomed past 1 million to reach 1.2 million in just a few weeks, because the state has conducted 24 million PCR tests, the positivity rate in California is just 5.1 percent. The World Health Organization stated in May that the positivity rate should remain below 5 percent for 14 days to be safe for an area to reopen.

Is Covid surging in the state of Montana?

Is Covid surging in the state of Montana?

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

Of all the positive cases in Montana, the mortality rate is hovering around 1 percent — not of the total population but of all positive cases in the state.

Like other governors around the country, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock announced restrictions this week, putting in place a statewide mask mandate starting Friday.

The Associated Press reported that the restrictions came as the “virus surges” in Montana. Does the data really show a surge? It’s hard to say definitively, since nationwide, cases and deaths are counted even when there is no laboratory-confirmed Covid test. As long as a doctor puts "Covid” as a cause on the death certificate, even if the determination is based on symptoms alone, that death is counted as a Covid-19 death.

So back to Montana: the word “surge” can be misleading since it’s really fatalities and hospitalizations that matter. Yes, positive cases have surged, by 40 percent since October 30. The first two weeks in November saw the 40 percent growth rate in cases, from 32,801 cases to 46,061, an increase of more than 13,000 cases. But that’s not the full picture; the number of Covid-related hospitalizations and deaths are important, too. In fact, they’re more important because they have to do with the ultimate outcome. Of all the positive cases in each time period in Montana, the fact remains that the mortality rate is hovering around 1 percent — not of the total population but of all positive cases in the state.

The charts show that there have been zero deaths for Montanans age 0 to 29; and for the other age groups, death rates are very low — until the 70+ age range. And for the latest numbers reported, the median age of Covid-related deaths is 78. The average life expectancy of a male in the U.S. as of 2017 was 78.1.

The data: Most later abortions are not medically necessary

The data: Most later abortions are not medically necessary

Tatiana Prophet
Abortion

Photo: Cover photo for the study “Young, Poor and Pregnant: the Psychology of Teenage Motherhood,” by developmental psychologist Judith S. Musick, 1995.

By TATIANA PROPHET

How did I find out that most late-term abortions are not medically necessary? Most of the data came from choice advocates themselves, who warn that women seeking late-term abortion face significant barriers: how far they must travel, getting the finances together, not having insurance, indecision and even disagreement with their romantic partner.

Stop for a second: Late-term abortions are extremely rare, you may have heard. And that would be correct: 1 percent to 1.3 percent of all abortion procedures are post-21-weeks gestation, according to CDC figures. The rest of the story, however, is that so many abortions are performed each year (they peaked in 1990 at 1.6 million) – that 1 percent to 1.3 percent is still a large figure: 6,000 to 20,000 well-developed fetuses aborted every year.

A fetal pain 'denier' rethinks the science

A fetal pain 'denier' rethinks the science

Tatiana Prophet

Photo: Lennart Nilsson’s 1965 cover photo for LIFE magazine: “Living 18-week-old fetus shown inside its amniotic sac.” It was the best-selling issue of all time.

By TATIANA PROPHET

“Gestational Age Bans: Harmful at Any Stage of Pregnancy” is the title of a 2020 article by Megan K. Donovan of the Alan Guttmacher Institute, the publishing arm of Planned Parenthood.

“Gestational age bans have long been a favored tactic of antiabortion activists and politicians as they seek to undermine and ultimately overturn the constitutional right to abortion,” she wrote. “In the past, such efforts were usually cloaked in supposed justifications that obscured the end goal. For example, bans on abortion at or around 22 weeks after the last menstrual period (LMP) have been propped up with unscientific claims about that stage of pregnancy, such as that a fetus can feel pain or that ending the pregnancy will result in mental health complications.”

The doctors are right: data shows young people aren't dying of Covid-19

The doctors are right: data shows young people aren't dying of Covid-19

Tatiana Prophet
Covid-19

@back2facts wire

Cases are exploding in the Sunbelt and Midwest, but they’re largely in young people. Look at the latest data on Florida and California.

In Florida, no one has died under the age of 4. In California, no one has died under the age of 17.

And hospitalizations are holding steady in Florida. No huge spikes in number of ICU patients, and while some hospitals have very low vacancy in the ICU, each county has other hospitals that can handle the demand. Miami-Dade, the hardest-hit county, has about 1,000 beds ready to convert to intensive care if needed.

In Florida, 45 percent of all Covid deaths were of patients or health care workers in long-term care facilities. In California, 37 percent of all Covid deaths were from those in long-term care facilities.

California Covid-19 death rate continues to decline

Tatiana Prophet
Covid-19

By STAFF REPORTS

The second half of July began with a Covid-19 positivity rate in California of 7.5 percent, still below the desirable 8 percent the state was aiming for. It remains to be seen whether the positivity rate will stay below 8 percent going forward.

Deaths continued to remain steady, hovering around 100-150 per day, with the death rate (deaths versus positive cases) declining to as little as 0.2 percent on July 18 and then going back up to 0.5 percent the next day.

Following are a few snapshots of the current situation in California and elsewhere.

Are California cases exploding? Look at the data

Are California cases exploding? Look at the data

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

The county where Covid-19 cases have been consistently highest, Los Angeles, has grown in ICU patients by only 3 percent; but sparsely populated counties have experienced double-digit daily growth in ICU occupied beds. Make sure you know the raw numbers of occupied ICU beds, though. They’re extremely low, since some of these counties have never had an ICU patient. One county, Yolo, has a total of five Covid-19 patients, with the previous day’s admission going from zero to 4 patients between June 23 and June 24. That’s an increase of 400 percent while the raw number of serious cases is extremely low. Still, it’s not nothing, and those four people could have had contact with several other people in these counties.

The raw number of ICU bed use is at an all-time high, at 1,268 in the state. That number has held steady between 1,000 and 1,100 through some of April, plus May and June.

Is there a police war on black Americans? See the data

Is there a police war on black Americans? See the data

Tatiana Prophet
Public Safety

By TATIANA PROPHET

How can both be true, that police kill more unarmed whites — yet if you are a black man, you are statistically more likely to be killed, unarmed, in a police confrontation? Think of it this way: Since white people make up more than 60 percent of the U.S. population, the number of white people who never experience harassment or bodily harm from police eclipses the amount of black people who escape such unfortunate encounters — whether through their own choices or simply, luck. That’s because black Americans make up a mere 13 percent of the U.S. population.

As to whether there is deliberate targeting and/or racism, circumstances are important. There’s plenty of senselessness in retrospect, from the recent shocking killing of George Floyd over the incredibly minor “crime” of passing a counterfeit bill to buy a pack of cigarettes, to being in the wrong place at the wrong time or keeping bad company.

The totals fluctuate every year, but the circumstances and senselessness are all too familiar.

Under Obama, it was 'not an ideal situation.' Under Trump, it's 'cages'?

Under Obama, it was 'not an ideal situation.' Under Trump, it's 'cages'?

Tatiana Prophet
Border

Children awaiting processing at the Nogales Border Station, 2014.
Both Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump dealt with a rapid surge in asylum seekers overwhelming the ports of entry and other illegal crossings. The pictures show overflow intake facilities at the most crowded border sectors. Children and adults must be kept safe and monitored while their identity is verified. The definition of overwhelmed means there is not enough space or resources to accommodate such an influx.

Perspective: The swine flu pandemic of 2009

Perspective: The swine flu pandemic of 2009

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

NOTICE: We recommend that all U.S. residents (and residents of other countries) follow the guidelines of the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control. Follow the orders of your state and local government, wear protective gear and socially distance from others. Remain calm and continue to monitor this changing situation, taking great caution and care to keep yourself and others safe.

Carter page: The man who wasn't charged

Carter page: The man who wasn't charged

Tatiana Prophet
Intelligence

Carter Page was the face of the Russia probe
More than 3 years later, it all fell apart

The application to spy on Carter Page was based on the suspicion that he was a Russian agent. We’ve now learned that Page had been working with the CIA, and had already reported to them the “suspicious” contact with Russian officials that was used to justify spying. After the OIG report came out Monday stating he was working for another U.S. government agency, Page himself told Sean Hannity that it was the CIA.

THE 'TREASON' SHOW

THE 'TREASON' SHOW

Tatiana Prophet
Diplomacy

By TATIANA PROPHET

On Monday July 16, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a joint press conference after their closed-door meeting, which had lasted two hours.

Read the full transcript here.

About halfway through his short opener, Trump said he had raised the issue of Russian interference in "our elections."

"I felt this was a message best delivered in person. Spent a great deal of time talking about it," he said. "President Putin may very well want to address it and very strongly, because he feels very strongly about it."

He then talked about Syria, calling it a "complex" crisis, and stating that the United States would not allow Iran, Russia's ever cozier ally, to benefit from "our successful campaign against ISIS."

The very first question, from Alexei Meshkov of Interfax Information Agency, was regarding Trump's very vocal opposition to a Russian pipeline to Germany, in which the EU powerhouse would, in Trump's words, become a "hostage" due to its dependence on Russian oil. The reporter implied there was perhaps a political rationale for Trump's stance, but Trump came back to say the superpowers would be competing for the world's natural gas consumers.

Putin then weighed in on Trump's opposition to the pipeline, saying there was "space for cooperation here."

Meddlers, leakers and hackers, oh my!

Meddlers, leakers and hackers, oh my!

Tatiana Prophet
2016 Election

Even if there are differences in the circumstances of the leaks from before the election (DNC emails that contained true information) to after (details about the White House that are both true *and* false), it is important we realize our own biases so that we can apply principles of fairness and democracy equally and figure out how the hell to get out of this mess. Justice is blind, and each situation should be judged on its own merit. But the most important thing we need to remember is not to act *prejudicially* before we know the full story.

Load More