All in Public Health

Here's how the California Hospital Association counts extra beds

Here's how the California Hospital Association counts extra beds

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

In early December, we stumbled on internal data maintained by the California Hospital Association. It appears our access was granted due to an oversight, because when we requested more information, we were told that the information we accessed was not available to the general public. We have re-entered the data into the chart below.

It’s important to note that many of these beds are licensed, but not staffed. We called some of the more overwhelmed hospitals, namely Keck Hospital at USC. The supervisor on duty was surprised to hear that they had 210 “surge” beds listed. Most likely this is because they are not yet staffed.

See “The L.A. County bed shortage seems more like a budget problem.”

Is Los Angeles' new Covid lockdown justified?

Is Los Angeles' new Covid lockdown justified?

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

California and Los Angeles have both issued new Covid restrictions with the news that Covid hospitalizations nationwide have exceeded 100,000 and the Golden State’s Covid hospitalizations appear to be approaching 10,000.

We would like to look at different areas the entire state, but since Los Angeles has the highest concentration of cases, deaths and hospitalizations, we thought we would zoom in on the L.A. data first. Before we do, let’s interpret the state’s overall numbers.

Even as cases have zoomed past 1 million to reach 1.2 million in just a few weeks, because the state has conducted 24 million PCR tests, the positivity rate in California is just 5.1 percent. The World Health Organization stated in May that the positivity rate should remain below 5 percent for 14 days to be safe for an area to reopen.

Is Covid surging in the state of Montana?

Is Covid surging in the state of Montana?

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

Of all the positive cases in Montana, the mortality rate is hovering around 1 percent — not of the total population but of all positive cases in the state.

Like other governors around the country, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock announced restrictions this week, putting in place a statewide mask mandate starting Friday.

The Associated Press reported that the restrictions came as the “virus surges” in Montana. Does the data really show a surge? It’s hard to say definitively, since nationwide, cases and deaths are counted even when there is no laboratory-confirmed Covid test. As long as a doctor puts "Covid” as a cause on the death certificate, even if the determination is based on symptoms alone, that death is counted as a Covid-19 death.

So back to Montana: the word “surge” can be misleading since it’s really fatalities and hospitalizations that matter. Yes, positive cases have surged, by 40 percent since October 30. The first two weeks in November saw the 40 percent growth rate in cases, from 32,801 cases to 46,061, an increase of more than 13,000 cases. But that’s not the full picture; the number of Covid-related hospitalizations and deaths are important, too. In fact, they’re more important because they have to do with the ultimate outcome. Of all the positive cases in each time period in Montana, the fact remains that the mortality rate is hovering around 1 percent — not of the total population but of all positive cases in the state.

The charts show that there have been zero deaths for Montanans age 0 to 29; and for the other age groups, death rates are very low — until the 70+ age range. And for the latest numbers reported, the median age of Covid-related deaths is 78. The average life expectancy of a male in the U.S. as of 2017 was 78.1.

Are California cases exploding? Look at the data

Are California cases exploding? Look at the data

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

The county where Covid-19 cases have been consistently highest, Los Angeles, has grown in ICU patients by only 3 percent; but sparsely populated counties have experienced double-digit daily growth in ICU occupied beds. Make sure you know the raw numbers of occupied ICU beds, though. They’re extremely low, since some of these counties have never had an ICU patient. One county, Yolo, has a total of five Covid-19 patients, with the previous day’s admission going from zero to 4 patients between June 23 and June 24. That’s an increase of 400 percent while the raw number of serious cases is extremely low. Still, it’s not nothing, and those four people could have had contact with several other people in these counties.

The raw number of ICU bed use is at an all-time high, at 1,268 in the state. That number has held steady between 1,000 and 1,100 through some of April, plus May and June.

Perspective: The swine flu pandemic of 2009

Perspective: The swine flu pandemic of 2009

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

NOTICE: We recommend that all U.S. residents (and residents of other countries) follow the guidelines of the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control. Follow the orders of your state and local government, wear protective gear and socially distance from others. Remain calm and continue to monitor this changing situation, taking great caution and care to keep yourself and others safe.