CDC shows a slight rise in Covid cases; other rates stable

While the death rate is currently flat, hospitalizations are up in some areas and stable in others. From all the curves we’ve observed, it almost looks like each time there’s a rise in percentages of each indicator, the rise is shorter than the previous rise. Further, the “milestone” in the news today — the most positive cases since the peak in July — is for cases. And President Trump’s got it right, cases do not necessarily indicate severity as in hospitalizations or deaths. Keep an eye on hospitalizations and deaths, and don’t let anyone scare you.

Remember what we’ve learned in previous CDC articles: if any statistic is described as Covid-Like, Pneumonia-Like, and/or Influenza-Like, that means the illness was NOT laboratory confirmed. When it’s definitely lab-confirmed is when they list the statistic as just Covid — cases or deaths.

This is important because these numbers are overlapping. This also applies to deaths, because in the United States the medical coding is the SAME for both lab-confirmed, and non-lab-confirmed, deaths. As long as the doctor thinks it’s Covid, it will be counted. But if there is no lab test, then the Pneumonia/ Covid/Influenza deaths will be overlapping with the Covid/Pneumonia but no Influenza, and so on.

When you read the statement on various national media channels that Trump is lying about how we’re doing, and they say we have the most total deaths and close to the most per capita, remember a few things:
1. China’s deaths are drastically undercounted based on the reports in Wuhan alone before the official numbers came out.

2. Most industrialized countries are counting only laboratory-confirmed deaths.

3. Half or more of the deaths in the United States are most likely not laboratory confirmed. Thus, when the dust settles, we may see that influenza deaths were way down after the provisional deaths are verified.

4. Comorbidities increase in countries where people lead an unhealthy or sedentary lifestyle.

For Week 42, the current week, the CDC said the following:

Nationally, several surveillance indicators of COVID-19 related activity are showing increases in SARS-CoV-2 virus circulation and related illnesses.

The percentage of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, the percentages of visits to emergency departments or outpatient providers for ILI (Influenza-Like Illness) and CLI (Covid-Like Illness), and COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates have increased or remained stable in recent weeks.

Hospitalization data for the most recent weeks may change as additional data are reported. The percentage of deaths due to PIC (pneumonia, influenza AND/OR covid), have been declining since late July; however, in mid-September the percentage leveled off. Data for the most recent weeks currently show a decline, but that is likely to change as additional death certificates are processed.

Read the full update here:
Week 42 CDC Covid Update