The race to call the winner -- ends in no winner at all
Photo: FOX News’ Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum on Election Night 2020.
Analysis by Tatiana Prophet
Excitement crackled early on Election Night in the United States, but by bedtime for many, the crackle turned to fizzle.
All were disappointed. At first, Florida was way too close for either camp, and though President Trump pulled decisively away from Biden, it appeared that media outlets were waiting till the very last ember of Democrat hope went out before calling the state of Florida for Trump.
It was the opposite for Biden — even over at (newly reorganized) FOX News. By 4 pm Eastern, there was a tally showing Trump leading by 10 points in Virginia, of all states, at the same time that FOX News’ Bret Baier called the state for Biden.
In spite of the famous premature calls of elections past, such as Truman vs. Dewey and Bush vs. Gore, the overarching impression of the night was that early “calls” were A-OK!
Also puzzling was the fact that the Midterm elections in 2018 had taken so long to decide due to a surge in absentee voting. Why does absentee voting take longer to count? According to Ballotpedia, there are two reasons: 1) Each state has different deadline rules (postmarked or received), and all states require the signatures to be verified. Some states use machines as a first tier of signature evaluation; others use humans for all tiers.
So the race to call the race was even more curious given the Covid-19 pandemic, the massive mailing out of unrequested absentee ballots, and the fact that nothing in 2020 had theretofore gone smoothly. At all.
Who could forget the lumbering pace of Arizona’s midterm vote count in 2018, conducted by plodding, methodical people who evinced more than one post-election upset?
On Nov. 3, 2020, it was almost as if the nation — including the people in charge of information — had collective amnesia. California was called immediately after the polls closed, which even though it’s been a blue state for quite a few elections, still seems like bad form.
But the most curious thing of all was the probabilities that were being put out by The New York Times. Though they had retired their famous “needle,” they used it for three battleground states. At about 7:30 pm Pacific, 10:30 pm Eastern, the Times showed the needle heavily favoring Trump in all three states.
Further, the possibility of Biden capturing all three of those states was less than 5 percent, while the possibility Trump would capture all three states was 80 percent.
But all that changed; and by midnight, the needle for Georgia lunged back to Biden. Earlier in the day, problems at election centers were reported in Fulton and Gwinnett, both metro Atlanta counties. One was a burst pipe, the other a “software glitch.” (North Carolina as of this writing is leaning Trump, while Georgia is inching toward toss-up category).
The NYT battleground needle at 3 am Eastern, Nov. 4, 2020.
Now nearly midnight on the West Coast on the day after the election, and Georgia is still not called for either candidate.
And six battleground states emerged as being too problematic to call. Michigan announced that they wouldn’t have the results until the next day. Vox reported that this was due to the fact that they were not allowed to start counting the absentee ballots until election day.
Even curiouser is Vox promising real-time election results even on Nov 4, showing them “call” the race for Biden, while right this very minute, the Michigan secretary of state shows Trump in the lead.
On election night, Michigan showed a substantial lead by President Trump, with three quarters of precincts reporting. But by the next day, Wednesday, news outlets were calling the state for Biden.
A quick tally of Wisconsin voters shows that 88 percent of all registered voters cast their ballots — an unprecedented turnout in modern times. And 60 percent of all ballots were absentee — most mailed but roughly half a million delivered. Given the fact that all election numbers in the state are unofficial, and the large ratio of absentee votes, wouldn’t it be a no-brainer to refrain from calling a state so as not to have egg on the face?
Apparently not.
Demographics of counted votes in three swing states: Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, as of 3 am Nov. 4.
Progressive journalist Glenn Greenwald has a lot to say lately about the woeful state of election counting in this country, as well as the media who report the results. Greenwald, who broke the Snowden story and recently left the paper he founded over censorship of the Biden family business dealings, wrote a scathing polemic on the state of elections today.
“Recall the mass confusion that ensued back in January, in the very first Democratic Party primary election in the Iowa caucus, where a new app created and monetized by a bunch of sleazy Democratic operatives caused massive delays, confusion and an untrustworthy outcome,” Greenwald wrote. Later in the process, many Super Tuesday states — including California — were still counting votes weeks or even longer after the election was held (more than a week after the Democratic primary, California had still only counted roughly 75% of the ballots cast, depriving Bernie Sanders of a critical narrative victory on election night).”
As of this writing, Trump has called for a recount in Wisconsin and in Michigan and Pennsylvania, a pause in counting absentee ballots until they can be observed. Even CNN was reporting that “unofficial” election observers were kicked out of a Detroit election counting room, and the walls blocked. See explanation of different state laws about observers watching the absentee ballot count.
Perhaps most ironic of all is the Associated Press, about a week before the election, preparing the public for a delay in vote counting, but then calling many races relatively early on election day and night.
One thing is certain: all the pre-election opinion polls were wrong. Time to reset our methodology.
And look at the bright side: The race is still in play, and likely will be for at least another week. Remember Arizona 2018!
Further reading:
Donald Trump Increases His Share of Black and Latino Voters
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/donald-trump-increases-his-share-of-black-latino-voters-election-exit-poll/ar-BB1aG9Lb
