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Only 96,000 voters requested ballots in Philly, so why did Joe Biden get 339,403 mailed votes?

Only 96,000 voters requested ballots in Philly, so why did Joe Biden get 339,403 mailed votes?

Tatiana Prophet
2020 Election

Even with the new rules, voters still must request a ballot to mail in votes in Philadelphia County
So why did Joe Biden get 339,403 mailed votes in Philadelphia County when only 96,000 voters requested mail ballots in Philadelphia County?

Further, the mail-ballot rejection rate in 2016 was magnitudes higher than in 2020, in spite of showing far fewer total ballots mailed. In 2016, 461 ballots were rejected out of 13,000-plus, an error rate of 3.46 percent. But in 2020, 232 mail ballots were rejected out of a total of 371,798, the state reported. That’s an error rate of 0.1 percent. If the same error rate from 2016 had been applid to Philadelphia in the 2020 election, 12,864 votes would have been rejected as in error. In fact, several major media outlets warned before the election that if 2016’s error rate were applied, it would result in a lot of disenfranchisement. In the end, that error rate simply was not repeated.

Is Covid surging in the state of Montana?

Is Covid surging in the state of Montana?

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

Of all the positive cases in Montana, the mortality rate is hovering around 1 percent — not of the total population but of all positive cases in the state.

Like other governors around the country, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock announced restrictions this week, putting in place a statewide mask mandate starting Friday.

The Associated Press reported that the restrictions came as the “virus surges” in Montana. Does the data really show a surge? It’s hard to say definitively, since nationwide, cases and deaths are counted even when there is no laboratory-confirmed Covid test. As long as a doctor puts "Covid” as a cause on the death certificate, even if the determination is based on symptoms alone, that death is counted as a Covid-19 death.

So back to Montana: the word “surge” can be misleading since it’s really fatalities and hospitalizations that matter. Yes, positive cases have surged, by 40 percent since October 30. The first two weeks in November saw the 40 percent growth rate in cases, from 32,801 cases to 46,061, an increase of more than 13,000 cases. But that’s not the full picture; the number of Covid-related hospitalizations and deaths are important, too. In fact, they’re more important because they have to do with the ultimate outcome. Of all the positive cases in each time period in Montana, the fact remains that the mortality rate is hovering around 1 percent — not of the total population but of all positive cases in the state.

The charts show that there have been zero deaths for Montanans age 0 to 29; and for the other age groups, death rates are very low — until the 70+ age range. And for the latest numbers reported, the median age of Covid-related deaths is 78. The average life expectancy of a male in the U.S. as of 2017 was 78.1.

The doctors are right: data shows young people aren't dying of Covid-19

The doctors are right: data shows young people aren't dying of Covid-19

Tatiana Prophet
Covid-19

@back2facts wire

Cases are exploding in the Sunbelt and Midwest, but they’re largely in young people. Look at the latest data on Florida and California.

In Florida, no one has died under the age of 4. In California, no one has died under the age of 17.

And hospitalizations are holding steady in Florida. No huge spikes in number of ICU patients, and while some hospitals have very low vacancy in the ICU, each county has other hospitals that can handle the demand. Miami-Dade, the hardest-hit county, has about 1,000 beds ready to convert to intensive care if needed.

In Florida, 45 percent of all Covid deaths were of patients or health care workers in long-term care facilities. In California, 37 percent of all Covid deaths were from those in long-term care facilities.

California Covid-19 death rate continues to decline

Tatiana Prophet
Covid-19

By STAFF REPORTS

The second half of July began with a Covid-19 positivity rate in California of 7.5 percent, still below the desirable 8 percent the state was aiming for. It remains to be seen whether the positivity rate will stay below 8 percent going forward.

Deaths continued to remain steady, hovering around 100-150 per day, with the death rate (deaths versus positive cases) declining to as little as 0.2 percent on July 18 and then going back up to 0.5 percent the next day.

Following are a few snapshots of the current situation in California and elsewhere.

Are California cases exploding? Look at the data

Are California cases exploding? Look at the data

Tatiana Prophet
Public Health

The county where Covid-19 cases have been consistently highest, Los Angeles, has grown in ICU patients by only 3 percent; but sparsely populated counties have experienced double-digit daily growth in ICU occupied beds. Make sure you know the raw numbers of occupied ICU beds, though. They’re extremely low, since some of these counties have never had an ICU patient. One county, Yolo, has a total of five Covid-19 patients, with the previous day’s admission going from zero to 4 patients between June 23 and June 24. That’s an increase of 400 percent while the raw number of serious cases is extremely low. Still, it’s not nothing, and those four people could have had contact with several other people in these counties.

The raw number of ICU bed use is at an all-time high, at 1,268 in the state. That number has held steady between 1,000 and 1,100 through some of April, plus May and June.

Is there a police war on black Americans? See the data

Is there a police war on black Americans? See the data

Tatiana Prophet
Public Safety

By TATIANA PROPHET

How can both be true, that police kill more unarmed whites — yet if you are a black man, you are statistically more likely to be killed, unarmed, in a police confrontation? Think of it this way: Since white people make up more than 60 percent of the U.S. population, the number of white people who never experience harassment or bodily harm from police eclipses the amount of black people who escape such unfortunate encounters — whether through their own choices or simply, luck. That’s because black Americans make up a mere 13 percent of the U.S. population.

As to whether there is deliberate targeting and/or racism, circumstances are important. There’s plenty of senselessness in retrospect, from the recent shocking killing of George Floyd over the incredibly minor “crime” of passing a counterfeit bill to buy a pack of cigarettes, to being in the wrong place at the wrong time or keeping bad company.

The totals fluctuate every year, but the circumstances and senselessness are all too familiar.