Pennsylvania vote: Nearly 300K mailed ballots for Biden had to come from non-Democrats
Back to Factcheck by Tatiana Prophet
The Pennsylvania capitol building in Harrisburg.
Elected officials and citizen pundits alike appear to believe that President Donald Trump incited a riot at the Capitol because he has been claiming election fraud since Nov. 3. So we decided to do an independent analysis of each state’s statistical anomalies to try to determine whether there was probable cause to examine forensic evidence in search of what may have caused such unlikely numbers, in such a narrow and contested race.
In Pennsylvania, 293,207 more mailed ballots were counted for Biden than registered Democrats returned ballots: 1,996,000 versus 1,702,000.
For independent voters, 303,784 independents returned mailed ballots. 24,783 mailed ballots were for Jorgenson.
Assuming all Jorgenson’s votes were from independents (which isn’t likely), that leaves 279,000 independent voters returning mailed ballots for either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. All of them would have had to vote for Biden, or if not, a massive amount of registered Republicans would have had to have voted for Biden.
From Pennsylvania’s election returns website.
But however many other party/independents voted for Trump by mail, they would have to share the 595,000 mailed votes for Trump with the 623,404 returned by Republicans by mail. That said, and at least 28,000 Republicans would have had to mail ballots in for Biden or Jorgenson, for Biden’s number of mailed votes to make sense. Since Jorgenson got only 24,000 votes statewide, almost all 303,784 independents who voted by mail would have had to vote for Biden because of the overage of Biden mailed votes above the number of Democrats who voted by mail.
The likelihood of all independent votes by mail going to Biden (provided most Republicans mailed ballots in for Trump) — or some mix thereof — is obviously low no matter what the pre-election polls said.
This analysis isn’t even looking at the amount of provisional ballots accepted statewide after being “adjudicated.” Those totaled 100,000 statewide. Stay tuned.
2016 results. Total statewide mailed ballots in 2016 were 266,000. That’s in contrast to the 2.6 million returned by voters in 2020.
